The Influence of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections on the Geography of Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis
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Nicholas Ray Adkins, MS
brianervinmamaril@gmail.com
Marshall University
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The Influence of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnections on the Geography of Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis
The research in this thesis used statistical and spatial analysis methods to test the influence of six Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns on the latitude and longitude components of tropical cyclogenesis occurring in the eastern and western North Pacific Ocean basins for the period... Read More
Abstract: The research in this thesis used statistical and spatial analysis methods to test the influence of six Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns on the latitude and longitude components of tropical cyclogenesis occurring in the eastern and western North Pacific Ocean basins for the period 1979-2016. The Pacific-North American (PNA), West Pacific (WP), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) teleconnection patterns were examined independently and in combination for association with variations in cyclogenesis geography. Four of the six teleconnection patterns were found to exert an influence on cyclogenesis latitude and/or longitude in their respective areas of dominance during independent testing; the PNA and WP patterns were not found to be significant explanatory variables for cyclogenesis latitude or longitude. Overall, the teleconnection patterns explained a greater portion of the variance in cyclogenesis latitude than longitude for both the eastern and western North Pacific basins. Patterns of cyclogenesis cluster shifting in positive, neutral, and negative phases of each teleconnection were identified for the study area using kernel density analysis. Furthermore, the teleconnection combination analysis was used to test the influence of multiple teleconnection patterns on the geography of tropical cyclones in positive and negative phases. Although the analysis provided statistically significant results, the combination analysis was inefficient at explaining variance in cyclogenesis geography.
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Mary Ellen Swanton
brianervinmamaril@gmail.com
Marshall University
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Daniel Bazan MA
brianervinmamaril@gmail.com
Marshall University
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